Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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Innovative Statistics

Football Outsiders exclusive statistics


DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 12/29/08, through Week 17

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.)

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team
  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
TeamConf AppConf WinSB Win
NYG65.3%41.7%24.3%
PIT68.6%36.0%18.1%
TEN63.2%36.0%17.6%
CAR71.9%31.3%14.7%
PHI23.2%12.0%7.6%
BAL21.2%9.3%4.6%
IND16.7%7.5%3.6%
SD16.4%6.0%2.8%
ATL16.7%7.2%2.7%
MIA13.9%5.2%2.0%
MIN13.7%5.7%1.2%
ARI9.2%2.1%0.8%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" super bowl matchups.

MatchupChance
Manning Bowl (Colts-Giants)3.9%
Keystone Super Bowl (Steelers-Eagles)4.9%
Flacco Bowl (Ravens-Eagles)1.8%