DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 1/23/2012, through Conference Championships.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings [1] of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here [2].) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 25,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Please remember that playoff odds are based on one equation that is meant to generally project the remainder of each season, not the specific results of one game. Therefore, specific percentages for the playoffs should not be interpreted as "official Football Outsiders picks."