Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

29 Sep 2008

Kevin Smith: Version 2.0

If you bought this year's Pro Football Prospectus 2008 (and if you didn't, what are you waiting for?), you saw the essay on Kevin Smith and his epic workload from a year ago. For the uninitiated, Smith had 450 carries in the 2007 campaign, a D-1 record.

It turns out that Smith has company.

Through five games this year, we have a new contender to the throne of Most Slagged Back in College Football. Enter Michigan State running back Javon Ringer, who has carried the ball 187 times in five games. That's 37.4 carries per game -- extrapolate that to a full season, and assume that 4-1 Michigan State makes it to a bowl game, and Ringer is on pace for 448 carries in 2008.

Think about that. If we look at the NFL, there have been 31 games since 1995 where a running back had more than 36 carries, an average of just over two per year. Ringer's averaging that per game. He has games of 43, 39, and 44 carries, and it's not as if those were games that went into overtime or required Ringer to carry the rock late and kill the clock. They were games against Florida Atlantic (a 17-0 victory), Notre Dame (23-7), and Indiana (42-29). The only other running back on the team with more than four carries is Andre Anderson, and he has 15.

One of the factors at least partially mitigating Smith's huge workload last year was that he was playing in Conference USA against a relatively smaller, less talented group of players than he would in the NFL. Ringer really has no such excuse; although he hasn't got into the most difficult part of his Big Ten conference schedule, he's playing some of the largest -- and most talented -- defensive lines in the nation. Since 1996, Conference USA has sent 36 front seven players to the NFL; the Big Ten's sent 118.

The worst part is that Ringer hasn't been particularly effective. He averaged 6.7 yards per carry as a freshman, 5.8 as a sophomore, and 5.9 as a junior, never going above more than 245 carries. This year, he's averaging 4.8 yards per carry; that's eighth in the Big Ten for players with more than 50 carries. No other player in the conference even has 100 carries, let alone 187.

It seems unlikely that MSU coach Mark Dantonio will ease up on Ringer as Michigan State enters into the Big Ten campaign. It's strange, because Dantonio doesn't have a history of overworking backs; at Cincinnati, no rusher got more than 210 carries, while Ringer split carries with Jehuu Caulcrick last year. Caulcrick's now on the Jets practice squad.

There's simply no justification or excuse for using a back in this manner. Ringer may have a better shot at being noticed as a pro back by virtue of gaudy carry totals, but when he gets there, there exists the distinct possibility that his "carry card" might have one too many punches on it.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 29 Sep 2008

7 comments, Last at 29 Sep 2008, 5:39pm by hector

Comments

1
by andrew :: Mon, 09/29/2008 - 2:00pm

Kevin Smith will be silent an entire game or film then erupt for one long run or speech about something.

2
by kj (spartans weblog) (not verified) :: Mon, 09/29/2008 - 2:20pm

I certainly agree that Ringer's workload is a big cause for concern for MSU fans--and won't be good for his NFL draft status.

But I would note that at least part of the reason for the decline in his yards/attempt is that he's now used in short-yardage situations, whereas Caulcrick handled nearly all those attempts in previous years.

3
by Jim (not verified) :: Mon, 09/29/2008 - 2:20pm

37.4 carries per game? That's obscene!

Man... That comes to 598.4 carries over an NFL season. That's just sick. Two hundred carries past the Curse of 370.

I'd be amazed if this kid can still walk come Halloween.

4
by discodack (not verified) :: Mon, 09/29/2008 - 2:38pm

For all of the hype Kevin Smith got coming out of Central Michigan, he sure hasnt produced what you want out of a 1st round draft pick.

It's a shame that runningbacks inevitably have their careers truncated after too much of a workload in college. Such will be the case for Ray Rice.

6
by zlionsfan :: Mon, 09/29/2008 - 3:22pm

Central Florida. Central Michigan produces QBs these days.

I don't think Ringer's struggles are just from goal-line carries. He had a lot of shorter carries against Indiana, and MSU didn't have too many plays inside the 5 on Saturday. I think it is more from the Spartans' struggles establishing a decent passing game.

5
by witless chum :: Mon, 09/29/2008 - 3:05pm

Smith was a 3rd round pick, though. And out of Central Florida.

Dantonio's explaination has been that you go with what works and that Ringer tires out the defense. His 4th quarter stats seem to bear that out, but I don't know why Anderson (or 230 LB Ashton Leggett can't carry it more early).

Some speculation has been that Dantonio doesn't really trust the other backs to pass block (Ringer is excellent at it) or know the plays. Late against EMU, Anderson and the backup QB ran into each other trying to execute a handoff.

Dantonio also favors upperclassmen to a higher extent even than most college coaches.

Also unmentioned is Ringer's status as the Spartans primary kick returner...

7
by hector :: Mon, 09/29/2008 - 5:39pm

Smith and the No. 2 have a lot in common these days - he was benched in favor of Rudi Johnson today (and essentially, last week).

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