Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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The Breakout of a Late-Round NFL Receiver

Antonio Brown is a late-round steal, but which active WR has beaten the odds of the draft and his QB? We studied the breakout seasons of the 20 all-time leading receivers and recent hidden gems. How important is QB play in developing a WR?

Recent Features

Football Outsiders Features

Futures: First-Round Time Capsule Mock

This week’s Futures is devoted to what Matt Waldman thinks the first round should look like based on his perspective of the game.

30 comments, Last Comment at 27 May 2015, 6:03am by libety86

Apr 27, 2015 11:35am by Matt Waldman || read all Futures articles

Week 20 DVOA Ratings

After the Patriots have one of the top five single-game performances of the season, our weighted DVOA ratings score Super Bowl XLIX as perhaps the biggest toss-up in SB history.

79 comments, Last Comment at 16 Mar 2015, 6:15pm by EdwardBPhelps

Jan 19, 2015 06:28pm by Aaron Schatz || read all DVOA Rankings and Analysis articles

Word of Muth: Ravens Wrap-Up

Ben Muth puts Baltimore's 2014 season to bed, and says their offensive line should be a solid building block for 2015.

12 comments, Last Comment at 16 Mar 2015, 6:17pm by EdwardBPhelps

Jan 16, 2015 09:13am by Ben Muth || read all Word Of Muth articles

Super Bowl XLIX Quick Reads

By FO's advanced numbers, the MVP of Super Bowl XLIX was an easy choice -- even though the losing team actually ended up with a higher DVOA rating.

58 comments, Last Comment at 04 Feb 2015, 7:26pm by herewegobrowniesherewego

Feb 02, 2015 10:44am GMT by Vincent Verhei || read all Quick Reads articles

Film Room: Richard Sherman

The Seahawks' defensive back will tell you he's the best corner in the game. Is he right?

17 comments, Last Comment at 17 May 2015, 1:17am by arias

Mar 30, 2015 12:16pm by Cian Fahey || read all Film Room articles

Audibles: 2015 NFL Draft Day Two

The FO staff discusses some of the most surprising moves of the second and third rounds, including Carolina's trade up for Devin Funchess.

27 comments, Last Comment at 06 May 2015, 6:51pm by chemical burn

May 02, 2015 02:22pm GMT by Andrew Potter || read all Audibles articles

Final 2014 FEI Ratings

Yes, Oregon is still ranked ahead of Ohio State in the FEI ratings. Why do you ask?

6 comments, Last Comment at 21 Jan 2015, 11:18am by Kyndynos

Jan 14, 2015 01:16pm by Brian Fremeau || read all Fremeau Efficiency Ratings Articles

OFI: Ohio State Runs Over Oregon

The Buckeyes overcame four turnovers by using incredible rushing efficiency, timely explosive plays, and critical defensive stops on third down and in the red zone to claim the first College Football Playoff Championship.

3 comments, Last Comment at 14 Jan 2015, 4:32am by rfh1001

Jan 13, 2015 01:20pm by Chad Peltier || read all One Foot Inbounds articles

SDA: National Championship Preview

The very first Playoff National Championship is here, and the two most deserving teams -- the Buckeyes and Ducks -- face off in a game that should be extremely close according to the advanced statistics.

19 comments, Last Comment at 14 Jan 2015, 6:13pm by Will Allen

Jan 11, 2015 07:04pm by Chad Peltier || read all 7th Day Adventure articles

VN: What F/+ Tells Us About 2014

With only one game remaining in the FBS season, Bill Connelly takes a look at what the current F/+ ratings can tell us about the 2014 season. For starters: the SEC is still the king.

9 comments, Last Comment at 12 Jan 2015, 11:01am by Mikey Benny

Jan 07, 2015 10:28am by Bill Connelly || read all Varsity Numbers articles

Any Given Sunday: Ravens Over Steelers

Why does John Harbaugh's excellent coaching record go overlooked? And how has Joe Flacco fared against excellent pass defenses in his career?

10 comments, Last Comment at 07 Jan 2015, 7:20pm by jonnyblazin

Jan 06, 2015 01:59pm GMT by Andrew Healy || read all Any Given Sunday articles

The Month In Quotes: June 2015

Jameis Winston talks his gut, Joe Montana talks Tom Brady, Brett Favre talks comeback, Mark Brunell talks RG3, and Marshawn Lynch talks about his ding-ding.

16 comments, Last Comment at 11 Jul 2015, 5:20pm by mathesond

Jul 06, 2015 12:08pm by Rory Hickey || read all The Week in Quotes articles

Scramble for the Ball: Rare Positives

Mike and Tom recap the Super Bowl in the only way that matters: prop bets and commercials.

8 comments, Last Comment at 11 Feb 2015, 3:13am by Jerry

Feb 05, 2015 11:11am by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower || read all Scramble articles

Innovative Statistics

2014 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1SEA31.9% 1SEA33.1%
2DEN29.5% 2NE31.4%
3GB23.3% 3GB24.1%
4NE22.1% 4DEN23.9%
5BAL21.9% 5BAL22.4%
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2014 OFFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1GB24.7% 1GB26.8%
2PIT22.5% 2PIT22.0%
3DEN20.0% 3NE19.3%
4DAL16.8% 4DAL19.1%
5SEA16.8% 5SEA15.2%
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2014 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1SEA-16.8% 1SEA-19.8%
2BUF-15.5% 2BUF-19.0%
3DET-13.9% 3DEN-13.3%
4DEN-13.2% 4HOU-12.7%
5SF-10.1% 5SF-11.3%
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2014 SPECIAL TEAMS RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1PHI8.3% 1BAL10.4%
2BAL8.0% 2KC9.4%
3KC6.7% 3PHI8.2%
4BUF6.2% 4STL6.7%
5NE5.7% 5NE6.0%
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QUARTERBACKS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1B.RoethlisbergerPIT1,572 1A.RodgersGB32.2%
2A.RodgersGB1,564 2D.AndersonCAR27.8%
3P.ManningDEN1,412 3T.RomoDAL27.6%
4D.BreesNO1,225 4B.RoethlisbergerPIT26.8%
5T.RomoDAL1,187 5P.ManningDEN23.9%
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RUNNING BACKS 2014

Rush DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
Rush DVOA Leaders
(Value per Play)
Rec DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
1D.MurrayDAL382 1M.LynchSEA23.1% 1L.BellPIT316
2M.LynchSEA359 2J.CharlesKC19.9% 2A.BradshawIND152
3J.CharlesKC249 3L.MillerMIA17.8% 3M.ForteCHI127
4L.MillerMIA246 4C.J.AndersonDEN17.5% 4E.LacyGB112
5L.BellPIT205 5D.MurrayDAL14.8% 5P.ThomasNO111
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WIDE RECEIVERS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1A.BrownPIT554 1R.CobbGB35.7%
2J.NelsonGB482 2T.WilliamsDAL30.6%
3E.SandersDEN481 3K.StillsNO30.3%
4R.CobbGB479 4E.SandersDEN29.6%
5D.BryantDAL430 5D.BryantDAL27.0%
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TIGHT ENDS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1R.GronkowskiNE237 1T.WrightNE30.9%
2A.GatesSD204 2J.ThomasDEN24.7%
3G.OlsenCAR178 3N.PaulWAS24.4%
4T.KelceKC174 4A.GatesSD24.1%
5J.WittenDAL146 5T.KelceKC23.0%
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Most Recent Articles

04 Aug 2015, 11:31pm by Scott Kacsmar

The Breakout of a Late-Round NFL Receiver

Antonio Brown is a late-round steal, but which active WR has beaten the odds of the draft and his QB? We studied the breakout seasons of the 20 all-time leading receivers and recent hidden gems. How important is QB play in developing a WR?

» More...

0 comments

30 Jul 2015, 12:29pm by Scott Kacsmar

2014 YAC+

Which receivers were truly most effective with the ball in their hands last season? We look at the leaders in YAC+ for 2014 and the last nine years.

» More...

13 comments, Last at 03 Aug 2015, 7:19pm by Scott Kacsmar

23 Jul 2015, 02:32pm by Guest

Quarterbacks and Salary

Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL, and should be the highest-paid. We can all agree on that. But this guest column by Kevin Kolbe explains why salaries for other quarterbacks are all out of whack.

» More...

157 comments, Last at 04 Aug 2015, 3:35pm by theslothook

22 Jul 2015, 11:08am by Andrew Healy

ESPN: Why Insiders Overrate Derek Carr

A recent article where Mike Sando surveyed 35 different NFL insiders ranked Derek Carr as the No. 20 quarterback in the NFL. But advanced metrics definitely do not agree. Come learn about Derek Carr's amazing 2014 red zone performance, and why it is not repeatable.

» More...

9 comments, Last at 03 Aug 2015, 8:55am by Duff Soviet Union

21 Jul 2015, 10:15pm by Scott Kacsmar

2014 Receiving Plus-Minus

Which receivers caught more or less passes than expected based on where the ball was thrown? We look at the best and worst from 2014 and some historical data.

» More...

23 comments, Last at 26 Jul 2015, 9:50pm by theslothook

17 Jul 2015, 12:27pm by Sterling Xie

2014 Run Defense by Number of Backs

While Peyton Manning and the offense got all the headlines, few noticed how good Terrence Knighton and the Denver run defense were last year.

» More...

2 comments, Last at 29 Jul 2015, 12:50am by tuluse

13 Jul 2015, 12:09pm by Sterling Xie

2014 Rushing by Number of Backs

The St. Louis Rams are doing all they can to keep 1970s football alive.

» More...

22 comments, Last at 17 Jul 2015, 9:01am by YoHoChecko

07 Jul 2015, 12:47pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Defenses Getting Older, Younger in 2015

Here are the final two parts of a four-part series for ESPN Insider looking at estimated snap-weighted age for 2015, based on projected starters, last year's snap counts, and a regression that predicts snaps for rookies based on draft pick and position. The result is a look at which defenses are getting older this year (Denver, New Orleans), which are getting younger (New England, Pittsburgh), and what that means for how good those teams might be this season.

» More...

0 comments

06 Jul 2015, 12:08pm by Rory Hickey

The Month In Quotes: June 2015

Jameis Winston talks his gut, Joe Montana talks Tom Brady, Brett Favre talks comeback, Mark Brunell talks RG3, and Marshawn Lynch talks about his ding-ding.

» More...

16 comments, Last at 11 Jul 2015, 5:20pm by mathesond

01 Jul 2015, 01:55pm by Sterling Xie

2014 Pressure Plays: Defenses

No defense generated more pressure last year than Connor Barwin and the Eagles, but did that pressure do them any good?

» More...

14 comments, Last at 21 Jul 2015, 1:07pm by tuluse

01 Jul 2015, 12:46pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Offenses Getting Older, Younger in 2015

This is a two-part series for ESPN Insider that's actually part of a four-part series. For the first time, we've done some work on estimated snap-weighted age for 2015, based on projected starters, last year's snap counts, and a regression that predicts snaps for rookies based on draft pick and position. The result is a look at which offenses are getting older this year (Indianapolis, Green Bay), which are getting younger (St. Louis, Tennessee), and what that means for how good those teams might be this season.

» More...

3 comments, Last at 01 Jul 2015, 1:44pm by Perfundle

30 Jun 2015, 12:00pm by Brian Fremeau

ESPN: Top 10 College Programs

Brian Fremeau uses his Program FEI methodology to compare his list of the top college football programs over the next few years to the ESPN Insider College Football Future Power Rankings. The ESPN experts like Ohio State the best, but for us, nothing matches the consistency of Alabama.

» More...

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